Assembly elections2012 had a few lessons for all of us.There were lessons for political parties of course. But there were lessons for the psephologists--both professional and amateur variety and for the individual citizens as well.It was almost a foregone conclusion that in Uttar Pradesh, the Samajvadi Party led by Mulayam Singh will emerge as the single largest party but that it will get such a huge majority was not in the wildest thoughts of even the most optimistic supporter of that party. That it got such a big majority of seats dashed the hopes of the Congress party which had been dreaming of at least sharing the power in the state if not outright ruling it by insisting on having its own chief minister should the Samajvadi Party fall short of a majority and need the support of the Congress Party to form a government. Of course the biggest loser was the Bahujan Samaj Party which lost its government.The Bhartiya Janata Party which had hoped that it would share the power if BSP needed some help after the elections were over was also disappointed.Samajvadi Party got so many seats that it now needs no one's help in forming the government.
What are the lessons for the individual citizens?The lessons are:that your caste matters more than the well-being of the state and the nation;that law and order matter much less for the citizens; that muslims may not be traitors but they certainly are not patriots as is exemplified by their en mass voting for the Samajvadi Party knowing it full well that the party represented something that is anti-modern. Last time the Party went openly against computers and the English language and although they have promised laptops and tablets to students this time, their middle age mindset could not have undergone a sea change in just five years. Election victory of Samajvadi Party,therefore, was likely to push the state backwards. This fact was known to everybody including muslims. Still the fact that they chose to elect this party goes to prove that imminent backwardness to which the state would be pushed to does not matter to them.The second aspect is the goonda raj to which the state of Uttar Pradesh was subjected when this party ruled last time.Today,even when the government of the party has not been sworn in, media are filled with the reports of the alleged excesses by the workers of the Samajvadi Party. A young boy has reportedly been killed and dozens of huts of the dalits have been gutted. If this is the 'agaaz' what the 'anzaam' is going to be is anybody's guess. The Samajvadi Party had promised that there would be no return of the 'goonda raj' that the state had witnessed last time but omens appear to be bad.There have been a few incidents since the victory of the SP was announced. Akhilesh Yadav, the son of Mulayam Singh blames the officialdom for these incidents stating in a press conference that officials want to discredit their party's government as they fear their transfers which would be effected immediately after the new government assumes office. But we all know what the truth is.Criminals who form the rank and file of the Samajvadi Party are not going to mend their ways easily. And they are definitely going to demand their pound of flesh for their support to the party. It will be interesting to see how the party leadership tackles this thorny issue.
The results of the Punjab assembly elections were unexpected. The Shirimani Akali Dal and Bharatiya Janata Party combine pulled out what could , for want of a better word be called a miracle. During the past forty-six years,no party or coalition had been returned by the electorate to power a second time. So the election results this time were nothing short of a miracle. How the ruling combine managed this will always be shrouded in mystery. What I can guess are the three factors: the first was that the image of the Congress party had received a battering at all-India level and anti-incumbency in Punjab was not adequate to undo the damage caused to the Congress party by its all India image.The second was the absence of emphasis on the panthic aspects by the Akalis in this year's campaign They had given more seats to Hindus this time. This created an assuring secular atmosphere in the state causing more Hindus to come out and vote .The third and the most important factor was that this time, for a change, the ruling alliance could really boast of having done something for the development of the state and its people.The Akali-BJP combine won with a larger majority this time than it had done last time.
Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa are the smaller states. Goa was, of course, bound to give a verdict in favour of Manohar Parrikar, what with the naked dance of corruption in that state and a few ministers getting caught on criminal charges. Manipur did not have a viable option and hence it returned the Congress party to power.The most pathetic results were in the Uttarakhand. This was the only state which did not give a categorical verdict. No party could get an absolute majority in the assembly.Of the 70 seats that the assembly has,32 were bagged by the Congress,31 by the BJP, 3 by the BSP, one by the Uttarakhand Kranti Dal and three by the Independents. Thus the Congress needed support of four more MLAs to get an absolute majority and the BJP needed that of five MLAs.If the BJP had won one more seat that would be at the expense of the Congress and the equation would be: the BJP 32, the Congress 31 and the rest as they were.This would have been possible,had the BJP chief minister B.C. Khanduri won from Kotdwar. Khanduri was made the CM just a couple of months ago because Ramesh Pokhariyal 'Nishank' whom Khanduri replaced, was considered as a corrupt man.The irony is that Nishank has won, while Khanduri has lost. Khanduri lost because he contested from a Rajput dominant constituency. Garhwal being notorious for its 'kha' 'ba' politics, Khanduri had little chance of winning. Some say that Khanduri's defeat was a result of sabotage. Whatever it may be, the consequence is that a Congress government with Vijay Bahuguna as the chief minister has been installed in Dehradun. Vijay Bahuguna does not have the support of the majority of Congress MLAs but he has the blessings of the High Command i.e. Sonia Gandhi the Congress President of India.It appears that a majority of Congress MLAs wanted Harish Rawat to be the chief minister if a sitting MLA was not to be the chief minister .Harish Rawat is now sulking and is reported to have resigned as a minister from the Union Council of Ministers.The big question is: will Bahuguna be able to win a vote of confidence? Or for how long can he continue as the chief minister of Uttarakhand?
What are the lessons for the individual citizens?The lessons are:that your caste matters more than the well-being of the state and the nation;that law and order matter much less for the citizens; that muslims may not be traitors but they certainly are not patriots as is exemplified by their en mass voting for the Samajvadi Party knowing it full well that the party represented something that is anti-modern. Last time the Party went openly against computers and the English language and although they have promised laptops and tablets to students this time, their middle age mindset could not have undergone a sea change in just five years. Election victory of Samajvadi Party,therefore, was likely to push the state backwards. This fact was known to everybody including muslims. Still the fact that they chose to elect this party goes to prove that imminent backwardness to which the state would be pushed to does not matter to them.The second aspect is the goonda raj to which the state of Uttar Pradesh was subjected when this party ruled last time.Today,even when the government of the party has not been sworn in, media are filled with the reports of the alleged excesses by the workers of the Samajvadi Party. A young boy has reportedly been killed and dozens of huts of the dalits have been gutted. If this is the 'agaaz' what the 'anzaam' is going to be is anybody's guess. The Samajvadi Party had promised that there would be no return of the 'goonda raj' that the state had witnessed last time but omens appear to be bad.There have been a few incidents since the victory of the SP was announced. Akhilesh Yadav, the son of Mulayam Singh blames the officialdom for these incidents stating in a press conference that officials want to discredit their party's government as they fear their transfers which would be effected immediately after the new government assumes office. But we all know what the truth is.Criminals who form the rank and file of the Samajvadi Party are not going to mend their ways easily. And they are definitely going to demand their pound of flesh for their support to the party. It will be interesting to see how the party leadership tackles this thorny issue.
The results of the Punjab assembly elections were unexpected. The Shirimani Akali Dal and Bharatiya Janata Party combine pulled out what could , for want of a better word be called a miracle. During the past forty-six years,no party or coalition had been returned by the electorate to power a second time. So the election results this time were nothing short of a miracle. How the ruling combine managed this will always be shrouded in mystery. What I can guess are the three factors: the first was that the image of the Congress party had received a battering at all-India level and anti-incumbency in Punjab was not adequate to undo the damage caused to the Congress party by its all India image.The second was the absence of emphasis on the panthic aspects by the Akalis in this year's campaign They had given more seats to Hindus this time. This created an assuring secular atmosphere in the state causing more Hindus to come out and vote .The third and the most important factor was that this time, for a change, the ruling alliance could really boast of having done something for the development of the state and its people.The Akali-BJP combine won with a larger majority this time than it had done last time.
Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa are the smaller states. Goa was, of course, bound to give a verdict in favour of Manohar Parrikar, what with the naked dance of corruption in that state and a few ministers getting caught on criminal charges. Manipur did not have a viable option and hence it returned the Congress party to power.The most pathetic results were in the Uttarakhand. This was the only state which did not give a categorical verdict. No party could get an absolute majority in the assembly.Of the 70 seats that the assembly has,32 were bagged by the Congress,31 by the BJP, 3 by the BSP, one by the Uttarakhand Kranti Dal and three by the Independents. Thus the Congress needed support of four more MLAs to get an absolute majority and the BJP needed that of five MLAs.If the BJP had won one more seat that would be at the expense of the Congress and the equation would be: the BJP 32, the Congress 31 and the rest as they were.This would have been possible,had the BJP chief minister B.C. Khanduri won from Kotdwar. Khanduri was made the CM just a couple of months ago because Ramesh Pokhariyal 'Nishank' whom Khanduri replaced, was considered as a corrupt man.The irony is that Nishank has won, while Khanduri has lost. Khanduri lost because he contested from a Rajput dominant constituency. Garhwal being notorious for its 'kha' 'ba' politics, Khanduri had little chance of winning. Some say that Khanduri's defeat was a result of sabotage. Whatever it may be, the consequence is that a Congress government with Vijay Bahuguna as the chief minister has been installed in Dehradun. Vijay Bahuguna does not have the support of the majority of Congress MLAs but he has the blessings of the High Command i.e. Sonia Gandhi the Congress President of India.It appears that a majority of Congress MLAs wanted Harish Rawat to be the chief minister if a sitting MLA was not to be the chief minister .Harish Rawat is now sulking and is reported to have resigned as a minister from the Union Council of Ministers.The big question is: will Bahuguna be able to win a vote of confidence? Or for how long can he continue as the chief minister of Uttarakhand?
